Comparing modern and Pleistocene ENSO-like influences in NW Argentina using nonlinear time series analysis methods

Higher variability in rainfall and river discharge could be of major importance in landslide generation in the north-western Argentine Andes. Annual layered (varved) deposits of a landslide dammed lake in the Santa Maria Basin (26 deg S, 66 deg W) with an age of 30,000 14C years provide an archive of precipitation variability during this time. The comparison of these data with present-day rainfall observations tests the hypothesis that increased rainfall variability played a major role in landslide generation. A potential cause of such variability is the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The causal link between ENSO and local rainfall is quantified by using a new method of nonlinear data analysis, the quantitative analysis of cross recurrence plots (CRP). This method seeks similarities in the dynamics of two different processes, such as an ocean-atmosphere oscillation and local rainfall. Our analysis reveals significant similarities in the statistics of both modern and palaeo-precipitation data. The similarities in the data suggest that an ENSO-like influence on local rainfall was present at around 30,000 14C years ago. Increased rainfall, which was inferred from a lake balance modeling in a previous study, together with ENSO-like cyclicities could help to explain the clustering of landslides at around 30,000 14C years ago.Comment: 11 pages, 9 figure

Uncertainties in climate change projections and regional downscaling: implications for water resources management

Climate change is expected to have a large impact on water resources worldwide. A major problem in assessing the potential impact of a changing climate on these resources is the difference in spatial scale between available climate change projections and water resources management. Regional climate models (RCMs) are often used for the spatial disaggregation of the outputs of global circulation models. However, RCMs are time-intensive to run and typically only a small number of model runs is available for a certain region of interest. This paper investigates the value of the improved representation of local climate processes by a regional climate model for water resources management in the tropical Andes of Ecuador. This region has a complex hydrology and its water resources are under pressure. Compared to the IPCC AR4 model ensemble, the regional climate model PRECIS does indeed capture local gradients better than global models, but locally the model is prone to large discrepancies between observed and modelled precipitation. It is concluded that a further increase in resolution is necessary to represent local gradients properly. Furthermore, to assess the uncertainty in downscaling, an ensemble of regional climate models should be implemented. Finally, translating the climate variables to streamflow using a hydrological model constitutes a smaller but not negligible source of uncertainty

The unusual pulsation spectrum of the cool ZZ Ceti star HS 0507+0434B

We present the analysis of one week of single-site high-speed CCD photometric observations of the cool ZZ Ceti star HS 0507+0434B. Ten independent frequencies are detected in the star's light variations: one singlet and three nearly-equally spaced triplets. We argue that these triplets are due to rotationally split modes of spherical degree l=1. This is the first detection of consistent multiplet structure in the amplitude spectrum of a cool ZZ Ceti star and it allows us to determine the star's rotation period: 1.70 +/- 0.11 d. We report exactly equal frequency, not period, spacings between the detected mode groups. In addition, certain pairs of modes from the four principal groups have frequency ratios which are very close to 3:4 or 4:5; while these ratios are nearly exact (within one part in 10^4), they still lie outside the computed error bars. We speculate that these relationships between different frequencies could be caused by resonances. One of the three triplets may not be constant in amplitude and/or frequency. We compare our frequency solution for the combination frequencies (of which we detected 38) to Wu's (1998, 2001) model thereof. We obtain consistent results when trying to infer the star's convective thermal time and the inclination angle of its rotational axis. Theoretical combination-frequency amplitude spectra also resemble those of the observations well, and direct theoretical predictions of the observed second-order light-curve distortions were also reasonably successful assuming the three triplets are due to l=1 modes. Attempts to reproduce the observed combination frequencies adopting all possible l=2 identifications for the triplets did not provide similarly consistent results, supporting their identification with l=1.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS; 12 pages, 8 figure

Critical collapse of a massive vector field

We perform numerical simulations of the critical gravitational collapse of a massive vector field. The result is that there are two critical solutions. One is equivalent to the Choptuik critical solution for a massless scalar field. The other is periodic.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

Climate trends and glacier retreat in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, revisited

The total glacial area of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, has shrunk by more than 30% in the period of 1930 to the present with a marked glacier retreat also in the recent decades. The aim of this paper is to assess local air temperature and precipitation changes in the Cordillera Blanca and to discuss how these variables could have affected the observed glacier retreat between the 1980s and present. A unique data set from a large number of stations in the region of the Cordillera Blanca shows that after a strong air temperature rise of about 0.31 °C per decade between 1969 and 1998, a slowdown in the warming to about 0.13 °C per decade occurred for the 30 years from 1983 to 2012. Additionally, based on data from a long-term meteorological station, it was found that the freezing line altitude during precipitation days has probably not increased significantly in the last 30 years. We documented a cooling trend for maximum daily air temperatures and an increase in precipitation of about 60 mm/decade since the early 1980s. The strong increase in precipitation in the last 30 years probably did not balance the increase of temperature before the 1980s. It is suggested that recent changes in temperature and precipitation alone may not explain the glacial recession within the thirty years from the early 1980s to 2012. Glaciers in the Cordillera Blanca may be still reacting to the positive air temperature rise before 1980. Especially small and low-lying glaciers are characterised by a serious imbalance and may disappear in the near future

Comparison of Jugular vs. Saphenous Blood Samples, Intrarater and In-Between Device Reliability of Clinically Used ROTEM S Parameters in Dogs

Rotational Thromboelastometry (ROTEM) allows for the global assessment of hemostasis in whole blood samples. Preanalytical and analytical factors may influence test results, and data about the reliability and reproducibility of lyophilized ROTEM tests are scarce. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of blood collection site on ROTEM S parameters and to assess intrarater and in-between device variability. A total of thirty, healthy, staff-owned dogs were included. Blood collection and ROTEM analysis were performed by trained staff according to a standardized protocol. Extrinsically activated (tissue factor; Ex-TEM S), with the addition of cytochalasin for platelet inhibition (Fib-TEM S), and intrinsically activated (In-TEM) analyses were performed. Analysis of our data showed significant variability for various Ex-TEM S and Fib-TEM S parameters from different collection sites and intrarater and in-between device measurements. We conclude that serial monitoring with ROTEM should be performed on the same device, with blood always taken from the same collection site using a standardized blood sampling technique. While In-TEM S, apart from maximum lysis, showed very stable and reliable results, we suggest interpreting especially clotting and clot formation parameters from Ex-TEM S and Fib-TEM S tests with caution and using duplicate measurements to detect outliers and to prevent initiation of incorrect therapies

Untapped seasonal storage potential in Swiss hydropower schemes

We have analysed all Swiss hydropower reservoirs with a capacity above 1 million m3: ‐ 63 reservoirs > 1 hm3 ‐ 40 reservoirs > 10 hm3 ‐ 29 reservoirs > 30 hm3 ‐ 36 reservoirs > 60 hm3 These 168 dams represent 8778 GWhof storage capacity, which is over 99% of the total Swiss hydropower storage capacity. The results show that a significant number of dams could increase storage in a significant way: ‐ 48 dams could capture existing excess natural inflows if their current storage capacity were to be increased. ‐ 7 dams are sub-optimally used, and could catch additional inflows using existing infrastructure

Comparison of Jugular vs. Saphenous Blood Samples, Intrarater and In-Between Device Reliability of Clinically Used ROTEM S Parameters in Dogs.

Rotational Thromboelastometry (ROTEM) allows for the global assessment of hemostasis in whole blood samples. Preanalytical and analytical factors may influence test results, and data about the reliability and reproducibility of lyophilized ROTEM tests are scarce. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of blood collection site on ROTEM S parameters and to assess intrarater and in-between device variability. A total of thirty, healthy, staff-owned dogs were included. Blood collection and ROTEM analysis were performed by trained staff according to a standardized protocol. Extrinsically activated (tissue factor; Ex-TEM S), with the addition of cytochalasin for platelet inhibition (Fib-TEM S), and intrinsically activated (In-TEM) analyses were performed. Analysis of our data showed significant variability for various Ex-TEM S and Fib-TEM S parameters from different collection sites and intrarater and in-between device measurements. We conclude that serial monitoring with ROTEM should be performed on the same device, with blood always taken from the same collection site using a standardized blood sampling technique. While In-TEM S, apart from maximum lysis, showed very stable and reliable results, we suggest interpreting especially clotting and clot formation parameters from Ex-TEM S and Fib-TEM S tests with caution and using duplicate measurements to detect outliers and to prevent initiation of incorrect therapies